Abstract: Objective This study aims to analyze the trend of mortality of tuberculosis of China in recent years and make predictions, to provide reference data for making rational and effective TB control strategies. Methods The mortality from 2005 to 2012 based on national disease surveillance points are respectively 6.58/100 000, 5.14/100 000, 4.65/100 000, 4.15/100 000, 4.05/100 000, 3.87/100 000, 3.39/100 000, and 2.29/100 000. The national DSP system was adjusted in 2005, which nowadays covers 161 sites in 31 provinces (Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan not included), including 64 urban sites, 97 rural sites. About 6% of national population, 81.53 million residents are covered by this system and ICD-10 standard is used as classification of cause of death. The mortality based on WHO global tuberculosis report 2012 are 19.00, 13.00, 8.70, 5.70 and 3.80 in every 100 000 population in every 5 years from 1990 to 2010. GM (1,1) grey models are established based on these data by using MATLAB V7.0, then we could get the prediction formulas and predict future TB mortality data after fitting test. Results Via prediction formulas, based on two data resources, the predicted TB mortality of 2015, 2020, 2025 are 2.44/100 000, 1.62/100 000, 1.07/100 000, and 2.55/100 000, 1.71/100 000, 1.14/100 000. Meanwhile, the corresponding predicted results of mortality are 2.27/100 000, 1.40/100 000, 0.86/100 000, and 2.54/100 000, 1.70/100 000, 1.14/100 000, through time series model. Conclusion The GM (1,1) model has showed good effect in simulating historic TB mortality data, and the predicted results indicate that the TB mortality of China will continue to decline in the condition of unchanged external environment and impact factors, and expected to reach the millennium development goals of U.N. in time.

Key words: Tuberculosis/mortality, Models, theoretical, Forecasting